Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0922Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 092 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 090/090/092 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 016/018-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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