Viewing archive of Monday, 27 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0227Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2213Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 27/1359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
27/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Dec, 30
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 124 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 125/122/120 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 010/010-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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