Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/1029Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/2059Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 25/1101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/1510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 101 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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