Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Feb 03 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Feb 2022	128	032
04 Feb 2022	127	031
05 Feb 2022	128	037

Bulletin

There are four active region present on the disk . Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region (AR) 2940 (Catania sunspot group 21, Mag. configuration: beta-gamma) has been most active, producing a C2.0 flare, peaking on Feb 0216:38UT. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a possibility of M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares.

Of the Coronal Mass Ejections observed, none is currently expected to have an Earth-directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours, depending flaring activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours, as a response to an ICME that arrived on about Feb 02 23:00UT. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase about moderate levels during the next period.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions indicated the arrival of an ICME. It is not clear if it is associated with the CME from Jan 29 23:00UT or if it has another origin. The solar wind speed has reached the value of 560 km/s and remained enhanced. The magnetic field magnitude neared 20 nT. Bz attained a southward peak of -19nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from the positive sector (directed way from the Sun) to the negative (directed towards the Sun) about Feb 03 08:00UT. A small negative polarity coronal hole is currently at central meridian. Over the next 24 hours, we expect the solar wind conditions to remain enhanced.

As a result of the ICME we are currently having minor storm conditions (Kp equal to 5). We are expecting the storm conditions to continue, with a possibility to reach Kp 6. The effects of the ICME could be compounded on Feb 05 with the high speed stream expected from the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole that crossed central meridian yesterday.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	072
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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