Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1341Z from Region 2939 (S16W20). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb,
08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 06/0849Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 124 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 122/120/120 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 011/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 166.1 +21.7 |