Viewing archive of Monday, 7 February 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Feb 07 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Feb 2022	122	008
08 Feb 2022	120	007
09 Feb 2022	118	035

Bulletin

The strongest event of the period was a long duration C3.1 flare from NOAA region 2939 peaking at 13:41UT. While NOAA region 2938 has now turned over the West limb a new simple bipolar region in the South Western quadrant was numbered region 2942. There are now four active regions on the disc of which only 2939 and 3941 appear to show some activity. Overall C flaring is likely with a small chance for an isolated M flare.

The C3.1 flare was associated with a dimming and a filament eruption that could clearly be observed in AIA 304 images around 12:49UT. In LASCO C2 coronagraph images a corresponding CME is visible from 14:36UT onwards, and it can also be observed in STEREO A COR coronagraph from 14:09UT onwards. From LASCO perspective it is a (partial) halo with somewhat disconnected components to the North and South. A similar multipart view is visible from STEREO A from which it is seen to propagate Westward. The CME is obviously Earth directed. The speed is estimated to be around 900km/s with an expected arrival around noon February 9.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold, due to the enhanced Solar wind conditions. It is expected to be above threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next period.

Solar wind showed the start of return towards slow Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from around 540 km/s to under 500 km/s presently. The magnetic field magnitude decreased from just over 5nT to around 4nT with a variable Bz. The magnetic field phi angle indicated connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to show a continued decrease towards slow Solar wind conditions. On February 9, we then expect the arrival of the February 6 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium mostly 1-3), with an isolated active period locally. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled and decreasing. On February 9 an increase to active conditions with potentially minor to moderate storm conditions is expected associated to the CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	079 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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