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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/2306Z from Region 2941 (N25E24). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 08/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11396 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 123
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 122/120/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/014-018/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%45%
Minor storm25%35%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%10%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm60%75%60%

All times in UTC

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