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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1742Z from Region 2940 (N17W82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb,
13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2047Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 11/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6612 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 113 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 110/108/108 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 013/015-007/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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