Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0518Z from Region 2943 (S20W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb,
17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 15/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7941 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 114 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 110/110/108 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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