Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 22/0102Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 22/0518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 22/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 095 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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