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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0626Z from Region 2957 (S13E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 27/2031Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
27/0638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 811 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 097 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 099/102/105 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 011/015-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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