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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/2155Z from Region 2958 (N17E11). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Mar,
06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 04/1041Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 234 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06
Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 113 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 115/117/117 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 011/012-011/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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