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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/2343Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 11/1426Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 10/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/0542Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 11/0720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (13 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 127 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/008-008/010-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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