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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 325 km/s at 18/0119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 098 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 098/098/095 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 008/008-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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