Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/0111Z from Region 2975 (N13W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1550Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 570 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar), active to
severe storm levels on day two (31 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (30 Mar), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 149 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 011/014-032/056-025/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 45% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 80% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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