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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 01/0234Z from Region 2981 (S26E18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/1436Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 31/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/0934Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 31/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M75%75%35%
Class X30%30%05%
Proton50%50%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Apr 147
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 145/130/115
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  018/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  011/012-011/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%45%30%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%35%25%
Major-severe storm40%55%40%

All times in UTC

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