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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
01/0234Z from Region 2981 (S26E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04
Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/1436Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 31/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/0934Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 31/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Apr, 03 Apr) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 35% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 147 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 145/130/115 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 018/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 011/012-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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