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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
03/1309Z from Region 2976 (N20W78). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Apr) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05
Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 02/2322Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/2159Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14 pfu at 02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2596 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 65% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 140 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 130/120/120 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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