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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/1514Z from Region 2978 (S19W77). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (09 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 07/2242Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 306 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 109
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 108/105/102
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  010/015-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%40%25%

All times in UTC

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