Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 April 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Apr 30 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Apr 2022	124	017
01 May 2022	124	012
02 May 2022	124	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was active in the past 24 hours with several M-class flares. Yesterday, on April 29 an M1.2-class flare peaked at 18:10 UTC observed in Catania sunspots 82 (NOAA active region 2994 located on the West limb. Today, this same region produced three other M-class flares: M2.6 peaking at 05:01 UTC, M1.4 at 05:34 UTC and M4.8 at 09:58 UTC, along with several C-class flares. The latest M4.8-class flare was associated with a Type II Radio Emission, which occurs in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. The region has now turned over the west limb, however, produced flares from this region may still be visible from Earth perspective and recorded by GOES X-ray instruments. The other regions on disc visible from Earth are comparatively less active and insignificant. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected with still also a small chance for an M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. Yesterday at 07:42 UTC on April 29 the M1.2-class flare from Catania sunspot group 85 (NOAA active region 2996) located at latitude 26 north and longitude 39 west was associated with a Type III solar radio burst and produced a large CME. However the CME North-West direction indicates that no component of this CME is expected to impact the solar wind contrition near Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux slightly increased following the M1.2-class flare from Catania sunspot group 85 (NOAA active region 2996) on April 29 at 07:42 UTC then the flux returned to background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained shortly went above the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It may cross the threshold in the next 24 hours due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence also show a slight increase in the past 24 hours and is expected remained slightly elevated in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment (as recorded by DSCOVR) are slightly elevated with the expected arrival of the fast solar wind speed streams associated with the equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) that reached the central meridian on April 26. The solar wind speed ranged between 440 km/s and 574 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude increased and reached value around 11.41 nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative and reached -9.6 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist as long as Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle due to the slightly enhanced solar wind conditions (NOAA Kp and local K-Belgium indexes 2-3). Then active conditions and a minor storm was observed (NOAA Kp 4 and 5 at 03:00 UTC and 00:06 UTC) with the arrival of the fast solar wind (originating from the equatorial coronal hole that reached the central meridian on April 26). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettle with possible isolated periods of active condition as long as Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated with the coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 050, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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