Viewing archive of Monday, 9 May 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 May 09 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 May 2022	121	007
10 May 2022	124	006
11 May 2022	127	008

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with three C-class flares. The strongest detected flare being an impulsive C8.2-flare on May 8th (start time 19:23 UTC, peak time 19:52 UTC and end time 19:38 UTC) produced by the active region in the south-east quadrant, which has now been classified as NOAA 3007 with magnetic type beta. The largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA 3004 (beta-delta), is slowly approaching the west limb and has produced a single low C-class flare. NOAA 3006 (beta) in now approaching the central meridian, but has remained stable and quiet. A new active region has emerged close to the north-west limb, NOAA 3005 (beta), and might produce some low level of flaring activity. The remaining simple active region at the south-west limb, NOAA 3001 (alpha), has been stable and quiet. The X-ray flare activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low to moderate levels with high chances for C-class flaring and possible M-class flares.

No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with small chance for enhancements, subject to the flaring activity from NOAA AR 3007. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has decreased below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain under the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has decreased to nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of a minor solar wind structure. The solar wind velocity was rather steady, weakly varying in the range 296 to 346 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced with a maximum value of 8.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -7.5 nT. The B field switched orientation from the negative to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect mostly background solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours with the possibility of minor enhancements due to expected influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 08 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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