Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 August 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Aug 04 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Aug 2022	100	009
05 Aug 2022	100	010
06 Aug 2022	100	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with a single C-class flare, namely a C6.9-class with peak time 17:08 UTC on Aug 3rd produced by NOAA AR 3068 (beta-gamma). The flare was followed by a type II radio-burst and clear on disc dimming and a coronal wave as seen in SDO data. These factors indicate a possible coronal mass ejection, however the available coronagraph data currently shows no evidence of it. Apart from the C6.9-flare, NOAA AR 3068 has not produced any other significant flaring. NOAA AR 3071 (alpha) remains simple and inactive. The background flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at very low levels with probable isolated C-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so, though it could reach the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours in response to the ongoing high speed stream. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the waning influence of a high speed stream (HSS). The solar wind velocity is on a declining trend varying between 422 km/s and 541 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.8 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next 24 hours under the influence of the waning HSS and a possible arrival of the a HSS from a small positive- polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian late UTC on Aug 1st.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally in Dourbes quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 27 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	042
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	039 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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