Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0658Z from Region 3077 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 11/0504Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14595 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 115 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 011/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 20% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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