Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 August 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Aug 17 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Aug 2022	129	016
18 Aug 2022	128	026
19 Aug 2022	126	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. NOAA AR 3078 was responsible for most of the flaring activity, the strongest of which was an M1.8 flare, peaking at 21:21 UTC. Two new active regions were numbered in the period (NOAA AR 3082 and NOAA AR 3083). NOAA AR3082 produced low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3079 is about to rotate over the west limb and NOAA AR 3076 has decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR 3081, remained stable and quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 directed to the south from 02:00 UT on August 16 has been analysed and a glancing blow at Earth is possible early on August 19. A previously reported CME observed in LASCO C2 from 05:00 UT on August 15, directed to the south-west, is also still expected to have a glancing blow at Earth early on August 18.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels.

The solar wind speed reflected a slow solar wind regime for the first half of the period. A shock was then observed in the solar wind parameters on 17 August 02:14UT. The value of the total magnetic field increased from 9 to 16nT, the solar wind speed from 392 to 424 km/s. The observed shock is believed to be due to the expected ICME arrival from the partial halo CME that was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 12:48 on 14 August. The Bz was mostly positive. The magnetic field orientation was mostly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become further enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the combination of effects from the current ICME, the possible arrival of another ICME and the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with a large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 14.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3), despite the shock arrival. Geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours are expected to be active, with minor storm conditions possible, due to a combination of ICME and high-speed stream effects.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 129, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	143
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	136 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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