Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/1119Z from Region 3100 (S25E48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep,
12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 10/2053Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/1700Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15502 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Sep, 13
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (12 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 136 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 128/126/123 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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