Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Sep 2022	144	011
16 Sep 2022	138	018
17 Sep 2022	132	012

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with multiple C-class flares from NOAA AR 3098 and from behind the west limb. Active region NOAA 3098 (beta-gamma) remains the largest and most complex active region and was responsible for most of the flaring activity. Active regions NOAA 3100 and NOAA 3102 have remained mostly stable and inactive. NOAA 3096 has decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with decreasing chances for isolated M-class flaring in the next 24 hours.

A westward coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed to leave the Sun around 09 UTC this morning following a large filament eruption in the western hemisphere after 06:30 UTC. The CME is estimated to miss Earth, but further analysis will be done as more data arrives. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated, but remained below minor storm level in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below minor storm level in the next 24 hours. Towards the evening of Sept 14th the greater than 2 MeV electron flux has significantly decreased following the recent ICME arrival and since then was observed well below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to decrease towards nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the continuous influence of a mild ICME arrival. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied between 285 and 352 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 16 nT with a minimum Bz-component of -14 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Currently the solar wind density has dropped below 10 ppcc, though the B field has remained above 10 nT for a sustained period of time. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced from the ongoing transient over the next 24 hours with further enhancements possible due to the expected high speed stream arrival on Sept 16th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours with possible active periods and minor changes for isolated minor storms with the expected HSS arrival on Sept 16th.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 112, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	105
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	090 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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