Viewing archive of Monday, 26 September 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Sep 26 1310 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Sep 2022	130	010
27 Sep 2022	129	014
28 Sep 2022	129	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.7 flare, associated with Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107), peaking on September 26 at 09:11 UT. Other low level C-class flares were produced by Catania group 48 (NOAA active region 3110) and by Catania group 35 (NOAA active region 3102) from beyond the limb. Catania group 48 and Catania group 47 are the most complex region on disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares still likely and a remaining small chance for M-class flare from Catania group 48 and Catania group 47.

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was very slightly enhanced but well below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period and is expected to cross the threshold again in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed displayed a declining trend with values decreasing from 400-300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of between 1 and 6.5nT and a minimum Bz of -4nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected on September 26. From September 27, possible glancing blows from the September 23 CMEs may blend into the expected high speed stream expected from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on September 23.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to (NOAA Kp 0-2, local K-Dourbes 0-2). Initially quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on September 26. Early September 27, active periods likely with the expected perturbed solar wind conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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