Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0646Z from Region 3107 (S24W13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 810 km/s at 27/1630Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 27/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 27/0925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on
day three (30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 135 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 015/016-007/008-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 29AR13889 22What devices are good for shooting aurora VIDEO with? 18Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1564AR 13883 224
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |