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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/1427Z from Region 3112 (N22W28). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 09/1758Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 161
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  017/020-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%15%30%
Minor storm20%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm30%20%25%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

All times in UTC

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