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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/1331Z from Region 3135 (N27E25). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 31/0522Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4923 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 128
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 130/132/134
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  086/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  015/018-011/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%45%25%

All times in UTC

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