Viewing archive of Monday, 31 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1331Z from Region 3135 (N27E25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 31/0522Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4923 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 128 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 130/132/134 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 086/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 015/018-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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