Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/2005Z from Region 3140 (N26E03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov,
11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 09/1241Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov,
11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 138 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 011/010-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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