Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
13/0621Z from Region 3141 (N14W40). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 13/2020Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 137 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 135/135/120 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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