Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 November 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Nov 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2022	143	014
16 Nov 2022	145	017
17 Nov 2022	143	010

Bulletin

Moderate flaring levels were reached with just a single M1 flare peaking at 2:51UTC from NOAA active region 3140. The region was also responsible for the many additional C flares that occurred in the period. After the emergence of flux in the intermediate area of region 3140 most of the spots have by now consolidated around the main leading and trailing spots. But some areas of mixed polarity are remaining. NOAA active region 3141 lost some spots in its periphery, and was inactive. Both these regions (as well as NOAA active regions 3145 which also remained quiet) are now approaching the Western limb. Flaring at C level is expected with still a fair chance for an isolated M flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. With the chance for M flares from the regions in the northwestern quadrant also comes a small chance for a possible proton event to occur. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters reflected a returning trend towards slow solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased to close to 400 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 5nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field showed connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Some enhancements in solar wind speed may occur over the next 48 hours related to some faint and small coronal hole features.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (NOAA Kp between 0+-1+ and local K Dourbes 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods related to the expected solar wind perturbations.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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