Viewing archive of Friday, 25 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0722Z from Region 3149 (N22W45). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/1712Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 24/2344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
25/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), unsettled to active
levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/108 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 012/012-014/018-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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