Viewing archive of Monday, 5 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0151Z from Region 3156 (N24E29). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/0710Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2607 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 150 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 010/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/005-009/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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