Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 December 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Dec 10 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Dec 2022	145	010
11 Dec 2022	147	006
12 Dec 2022	149	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low level in the last 24 hours, with most of the flares originating from the ARs behind the east limb, that are expected to rotate on the disk in the next days. The X-ray flux background has been mostly at the C level. The largest flare was a C6.0 flare, peaking at 14:13 UTC on Dec 09 associated with the AR behind the east limb (S19E89). Catania sunspot group 14 (NOAA AR 3159) decayed into a plage region. There are presently seven active regions observed on the visible side of the Sun and most of them have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153) remains the largest and most complex (beta-gamma class) region but was inactive in the last 24 hours. Catania sunspot 13 (NOAA AR 3157), that magnetically simplified from beta-gamma to beta class, produced two moderate C class flares. NOAA AR 3162 has rotated onto the disk, but remains simple (alpha class). The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold value of 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next days due to arrival of HSS. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 550 km/s to values around 470 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was about 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, as the influence of the HSS wanes.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet up to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and Local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet to unsettled levels during next hours with isolated active periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 125, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page