Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1010Z from Region 3162 (S13W63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/2313Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (21 Dec). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20
Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 156 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 150/145/130 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 011/012-008/010-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 16 January 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Latest forum messages
Penticton down? 701/21/2025 AR 3967 M3.3 CME 2The Terminator Theory and Implications for growth of Cycle 25 64AR 3967 32Filaments and prominences 615
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/21 | M3.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.2 -9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +45.8 |