Viewing archive of Friday, 30 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/1938Z from Region 3176 (N20E10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 30/2012Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 30/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 30/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3678 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec,
01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 162 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 162/160/160 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 022/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 013/017-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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