Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 December 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Dec 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Dec 2022	160	013
01 Jan 2023	160	016
02 Jan 2023	160	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity again reached moderate levels. The two M class flares were now originating from NOAA active region 3176 (Catania group 31) following the flux emergence ahead of the leading edge reported yesterday. An impulsive M1 flare peaked at 15:28UTC and was followed by an M3 flare peaking at 19:38UTC. Further C class flaring was from NOAA active region 3180, the region that rotated on the disc in the northeast. NOAA active region 3179 showed further spreading of the footpoints and consolidation. The two most active and complex regions on disc are NOAA active region 3176 and 3180. The other regions were stable or in decay. Flaring at C level is likely with a significant chance for further M class flares.

The M1 flare from NOAA active region 3176 was associated with an EUV wave and dimming. An associated CME towards the South-West is visible in STEREO A coronagraph data from around 16:53UTC. Coronagraph data from Earth perspective are currently still missing. Measurements on STEREO A coronagraph images indicate that the speed is not significantly above the ambient solar wind speed. Hence, despite the central location of the originating region on disc, the current coronagraph data seem to indicate that the ejecta are off the Sun-Earth line and with the measured slow speed we are not expecting any detectable influence on solar wind conditions near Earth. This forecast may be revised as further data become available. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached over the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected do so again today. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days.

A further enhancement of the high speed solar wind conditions was observed. Solar wind increased and briefly touched to the 600km/s mark, while now having settled in the 500-550 km/s range. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field saw a decrease from a high 12nT at the start of the period towards 5nT currently. The orientation of the magnetic field indicated connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -10nT to 12nT). Solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced today and to start a gradual decrease tomorrow.

Geomagnetic conditions were initially active locally and reaching minor geomagnetic storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 5 and local K Dourbes 4), but have now decreased to currently quiet to unsettled conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days with periods of active conditions still possible as solar wind speed remains enhanced.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	036
Estimated Ap	040
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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