Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/1036Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 03/0701Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4067 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 149 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 148/148/148 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 014/020-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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