Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 10/0016Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 10/1321Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/1348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 193
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 192/190/188
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

All times in UTC

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