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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1702Z from Region 3194 (S24W57). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 22/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/1819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/1842Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24
Jan, 25 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 199 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 195/200/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 009/010-008/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |