Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1201Z from Region 3200 (N21W15). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan,
31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 28/1212Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/2320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 588 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 138 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 135/145/145 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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