Viewing archive of Monday, 6 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 06 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Feb 2023	142	013
07 Feb 2023	143	017
08 Feb 2023	144	004

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours, the solar flaring activity has been at low levels with only 4 C-class flares. The strongest flare was a GOES C7.9 class flare originating from NOAA AR 3211 with a peak at time 12:12UT today, while the other three flares were low C-class flares. As all of the active regions have an alpha or beta magnetic field configuration of the photospheric magnetic field, we expect the solar flaring activity to remain at low levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility of M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind has started to slowly increase since yesterday 23:00UT from about 340 km/s to 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength also increased to 10-12 nT. We expect the solar wind speed and magnetic field to stay enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, which crossed the central meridian on February 3rd. A glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was first observed by LASCO C2 on February 3, 10:36UT, may be expected at Earth late today or tomorrow morning. However, if the coronal mass ejection arrives at Earth, its impact may not be clearly observed due to the expected simultaneous arrival of the fast solar wind.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods due to influence of the high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 119, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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