Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
07/2307Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 07/2331Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 08/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 08/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 192 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 192/195/195 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |