Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
07/2307Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 07/2331Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 08/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 08/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 192 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 192/195/195 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 517AR 13901 108Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1246Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76The Rotations of AR 13780 and AR 13902 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |