Viewing archive of Friday, 17 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 17/2016Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 17/0300Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 17/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 343
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 160/155/145
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  021/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  023/030-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%15%
Minor storm40%15%01%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%50%20%

All times in UTC

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