Viewing archive of Friday, 3 March 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Mar 03 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Mar 2023	169	016
04 Mar 2023	169	011
05 Mar 2023	169	022

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels of the past 24 hours. The larger flare was a C3.8-class flare peaking at 21:16 UTC on February 02 occurring in the most complex region on disc, NOAA active region 3234 (with a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta). The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at low levels with C-class flares and with still some possibility of an M-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the background levels over the next day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence has also returned to normal levels and is expected to remind at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity reached the central meridian on February 02. It is expected to enhance the solar wind conditions near Earth starting on March 5.

The solar wind environment near Earth returned to nominal values then some minor enhancement was visible starting from March 02, around 18:00 UTC: The wind speed slightly increased from 450 km/s to 590 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic reached the value of 11 nT around 21:00 UTC on March 02, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -7.4 nT and 7.0 nT. The origin on the sun surface of this solar wind enhancement is not fully clear, it could be the latest effect of the fact wind coming from earlier equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central meridian last week.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle in response of the solar wind enhancement, and especially the propagated period the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative. It is expected to remain quiet to unsettle.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	115
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	100 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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