Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/1012Z from Region 3242 (N10W15). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4293 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 182 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 178/175/172 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |