Viewing archive of Friday, 17 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1507Z from Region 3247 (S24W78). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar,
19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 17/0018Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 134 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 132/130/128 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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