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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/2357Z from Region 3257 (S28E40). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 22/1112Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 21/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/0137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 159 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 015/020-028/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 85% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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