Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 05 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1.9 event observed at
05/1217Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 137 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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